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  1. Abstract

    Vertical velocities and microphysical processes within deep convection are intricately linked, having wide-ranging impacts on water and mass vertical transport, severe weather, extreme precipitation, and the global circulation. The goal of this research is to investigate the functional form of the relationship between vertical velocity (w) and microphysical processes that convert water vapor into condensed water (M) in deep convection. We examine an ensemble of high-resolution simulations spanning a range of tropical and midlatitude environments, a variety of convective organizational modes, and different model platforms and microphysics schemes. The results demonstrate that the relationship betweenwandMis robustly linear, with the slope of the linear fit being primarily a function of temperature and secondarily a function of supersaturation. TheR2of the linear fit is generally above 0.6 except near the freezing and homogeneous freezing levels. The linear fit is examined both as a function of local in-cloud temperature and environmental temperature. The results for in-cloud temperature are more consistent across the simulation suite, although environmental temperatures are more useful when considering potential observational applications. The linear relationship betweenwandMis substituted into the condensate tendency equation and rearranged to form a diagnostic equation forw. The performance of the diagnostic equation is tested in several simulations, and it is found to diagnose the storm-scale updraft speeds to within 1 m s−1throughout the upper half of the clouds. Potential applications of the linear relationship betweenwandMand the diagnosticwequation are discussed.

     
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  2. Abstract

    In the atmosphere,microphysicsrefers to the microscale processes that affect cloud and precipitation particles and is a key linkage among the various components of Earth's atmospheric water and energy cycles. The representation of microphysical processes in models continues to pose a major challenge leading to uncertainty in numerical weather forecasts and climate simulations. In this paper, the problem of treating microphysics in models is divided into two parts: (i) how to represent the population of cloud and precipitation particles, given the impossibility of simulating all particles individually within a cloud, and (ii) uncertainties in the microphysical process rates owing to fundamental gaps in knowledge of cloud physics. The recently developed Lagrangian particle‐based method is advocated as a way to address several conceptual and practical challenges of representing particle populations using traditional bulk and bin microphysics parameterization schemes. For addressing critical gaps in cloud physics knowledge, sustained investment for observational advances from laboratory experiments, new probe development, and next‐generation instruments in space is needed. Greater emphasis on laboratory work, which has apparently declined over the past several decades relative to other areas of cloud physics research, is argued to be an essential ingredient for improving process‐level understanding. More systematic use of natural cloud and precipitation observations to constrain microphysics schemes is also advocated. Because it is generally difficult to quantify individual microphysical process rates from these observations directly, this presents an inverse problem that can be viewed from the standpoint of Bayesian statistics. Following this idea, a probabilistic framework is proposed that combines elements from statistical and physical modeling. Besides providing rigorous constraint of schemes, there is an added benefit of quantifying uncertainty systematically. Finally, a broader hierarchical approach is proposed to accelerate improvements in microphysics schemes, leveraging the advances described in this paper related to process modeling (using Lagrangian particle‐based schemes), laboratory experimentation, cloud and precipitation observations, and statistical methods.

     
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